In brief
Google has followed Apple in requiring developers to disclose in-app random draw odds so users can assess their chances before spending. The article reports that the revenue impact remains uncertain and that verifying published odds against actual game mechanics appears difficult.
After Apple required developers to disclose the probability distribution for obtaining virtual items through random draws in apps, Google followed suit with the same requirement.
Perhaps also prompted by growing concerns over spending in games, Google recently added a requirement to its developer guidelines to disclose the probability distribution for obtaining virtual items through random draws in apps. Developers must clearly disclose these probabilities whenever users obtain virtual items through any random draw within an app, so users understand their chances of receiving a desired virtual item with a single purchase. Making probability information transparent helps users decide whether to continue spending money on opportunities to draw virtual items.
Before this, Apple had already explicitly required developers in China to publicly disclose the odds of obtaining virtual items through random draws in apps. It later extended this requirement to all content listed on the App Store.
These rules arose because an increasing number of mobile games have embraced random draws for obtaining virtual items that give users a greater advantage in the game or make it easier to complete levels, thereby encouraging purchases. However, too many players subsequently became drawn to the chance of winning big with a small outlay through random draws, leading to excessive spending. As a result, a number of local governments have begun discussing whether such in-game mechanics should be considered gambling, prompting Apple and Google to pay attention to these issues.
As for whether requiring developers to disclose the detailed odds of obtaining virtual items through random draws will affect the distribution of revenue from gaming apps, this remains uncertain for now. However, the requirement is expected to help curb misconduct by companies that profit from unfair probability distributions. That said, it also appears difficult to verify whether the probability details companies choose to publish match those actually used in their games.
https://www.inside.com.tw/2017/12/26/apple-app-store-loot-boxes-google